Friday, August 14, 2020

Does the large moat around New Zealand help or hinder us with Covid19

Friday, August 14, 2020


oldbearnews editor 

 

    We humans - social animals that we are, have many traits similar to other social animals! Sheep roam freely - yet if they are sensing a threat - they bunch up in a tight big circle!

As humans we have done similar through out history. During the settling of the American Wild West - the wagons would be circling ever tighter until they formed a makeshift defensive wall against Mr Nasty out there!

Moreover we have always built defenses that protect our living places - once we stopped from hunter-gatherer to agricultural based living! We have big fences (in early days mostly wooden) that keep Mr Nasty (human or animal) outside, while we wait securely inside for the threat to pass. 

Of course no defensive system is ever completely foolproof and can be overcome. No matter how big or tall or thick a defensive wall one builds, there is always a way around, over or under it!

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One of the defensive matters cleverly built around medieval times was a moat! Most people did not know how to swim - so a 10 meter wide 5 meter deep water *bath* - possibly filled with flesh-eating *things* (and most certainly unhealthy to your life by just stepping in) was a genius idea at the time! In case of a external threat to your life / town - you simply retreated behind the wall and once all where safely inside you raised the draw-bridge and just waited it out!  There are many many samples of Moats and towns/ castles that can still to be found in Europe!!

The only major flaw in this system is - that occasionally there is a Mr Nasty outside who has determination and patience on its side!  The choice for those safely stashed inside the moat would eventually come down to one of two things - Starve - or give up!

Let me explain! Once safely inside - you can live of your stored food for x nr of days - (simple Math's of x nr of people inside and their daily rations required versus how much is stored away - and no online ordering / delivery of McDonalds - recently so graphically used by the book/film *The Martian* )!   Of course - Mr Nasty outside has a similar issue - can they wait long enough (or have more food resources)!! History will tell you that almost always the outsider has a better chance - samples are Salzburg / Peking / Stalingrad (perhaps) and their sieges which all eventually led to surrender and be conquered! 

Alternatively - a human marooned on a sandbank being stalked by a hungry (and VERY patient) alligator has no chance of escaping alive, unless there is an outside influence!  

Most of the places have just living places - a room to bed down! Thus they were totally dependent on stored food resources.   Even the livestock (if you had any) would need to be fed and watered at some stage! Try that on the gravel path leading forth and back between whatever buildings that were inside the moat.

New Zealand of course is blessed with a  V E R Y  large Moat - being an island in or near the Southern Ocean.  To go by boat (cruise) to Sydney will take approximately 14-16 days - boat speed depending!  Sailboats of course take much longer!! Our *drawbridge* currently are our airports - and they are half up = letting some of the *locals* in but keeping everything and anyone else out! 

The major advantage we have is that there are enough agricultural spaces that we can feed the local population - if only seasonal in some respects (Fruit / Veggies)!  We will not starve!! There will be other things that we will have to leave outside our *moat* - manufacturing products (cars / PC's / furniture etc etc) or they will take much much longer to arrive in! So no yearly upgrade of your Car / TV ! You may have to wait 3-6 month's for delivery! 

Unfortunately our current *Mr Nasty* outside is a Virus (Covid-19) that takes no prisoners and only needs a human host - it does not care about colour / race / age / nationality etc just as long as it can go forth and spread itself far and wide!

So New Zealand will need to make up its mind soon - how long do we keep up our *drawbridge* - live in isolation from the rest of the world (at least we will not starve)  - or do we bite the apple and lower our *drawbridge* and run whatever risk may still be lurking outside!  Either way  - some will get sick and some will die from it! You can count on that happening either way.  Suicides are up / divorcees are up / unemployment no doubt will rise / Cancer patients treatments delayed or cancelled altogether (which will lead to premature deaths no doubt)

So really the only question is - - ??? which is the lesser evil here ??? . .  Unfortunately as a country we cannot have a side by side test comparison - it has to be one or the other! The best we can do is comparing ourselves with the only Nation (Sweden) that has gone down a different path in dealing with this!  

Time will tell - do we have that time???




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